Frederick Marathon Prediction
Well, with only 3 full days to go before the 2006 Frederick Marathon, I find myself thinking about goal pace, mile splits and finish time predictions.
Last year I was 3rd in the 35-39 division, 16th overall and my finish time was 2:59:26 (6:51 per mile pace). With my lack of long training runs over the last 5 or 6 weeks, I can’t see myself getting close to my PR set at Shamrock last month, but I do hope to break last year’s Frederick time by a minute or two. Ok, here goes - this year I’m looking to average 6:46 per mile pace, which would give me a finish time of just over 2 hours 57 minutes. I think the key to success will be to settle in to a nice early pace and try to hold it for as long as possible. I remember last year some of the early mile markers were slightly off and it took a while to figure out what pace I was actually running.
On a positive note, I don’t have any niggling injuries and I’ve been able to run some good, solid 5k and 10k races. Last year I went into the race with sore shins from trying to do too much after Shamrock and between Frederick. This year however, I’ve treated myself to more easy days and less long runs, but as I said last week, this could be a recipe for disaster. I guess I’ll find out sometime on Sunday morning.
Maybe I should just take the advice of Steve Jones, the inspirational Welsh marathon runner? - “I just run as hard as I can for 20 miles, and then race!”
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